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Crime Prevention Research Center: Carry Laws Don’t Increase Gun Theft, Decrease Police Effectiveness

Monday, July 8, 2024

Crime Prevention Research Center: Carry Laws Don’t Increase Gun Theft, Decrease Police Effectiveness

Gun-control groups campaign against right-to-carry laws by claiming that guns carried in public pose a substantial threat to public safety, and that concealed carry permitting laws lead to more violent crime, not less. Giffords, for instance, alleges that “the dangers of permissive public carry laws” include an increase in gun thefts and “other undesirable outcomes,” with absolutely no counterbalancing public safety benefits.

Professor Carl Moody and Dr. John Lott of the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) have just released an updated paper, How Does Concealed Carrying of Weapons Affect Violent Crime? (May 31, 2024). These researchers examined information related to claims that carry concealed weapons (CCW) laws indirectly increase violent crime by driving up firearm thefts or by decreasing police effectiveness. Using a unique new data set that employs the number of permit holders as the variable of interest, the authors found no evidence that CCW laws are associated with significant increases in gun thefts or impact the effectiveness of police.  

On gun thefts generally, an existing government source on how criminals obtain their firearms suggests that only a small amount of crime guns are acquired by theft. A Bureau of Justice Statistics report, Source and Use of Firearms Involved in Crimes: Survey of Prison Inmates, 2016 (Jan. 2019) shows that only 6.4% of state and federal prisoners who had possessed a firearm during the offense for which they were serving time listed “theft” (burglaries, thefts from retail sources or a family/friend, or “other”) as their gun source.

Previous literature from the CPRC indicates that CCW permit-holders are unlikely to be violent criminals – in fact, as a class they tend towards the extreme opposite end of the law-abiding spectrum. In jurisdictions where information on crimes and permits is available, it shows that permit-holders are less likely to drive recklessly or under the influence than non-permittees, and permit-holders are “convicted of firearms-related violations at one-twelfth the rate of police officers.”  

Professor Moody and Dr. Lott analyzed the theft question (whether CCW permit holders are a significant source of stolen guns beyond the amount expected due to the existing burglary rate) using variables that included the number of CCW permits (and a dummy variable for constitutional carry laws), the number of stolen guns, and the burglary rate as a control. “Stolen guns,” they conclude, “are apparently independent of CCW permits or permitless carrying.” The evidence revealed that neither the number of CCW permits nor the effect of constitutional carry laws had a significant impact on the rate at which guns are stolen. Constitutional carry states do not have significantly higher gun theft rates but, because most of the constitutional carry laws are relatively recent (since 2015), “it may be too early to draw any conclusions” on their impact.

The second issue examined was whether CCW permit-holders were associated with declines in police effectiveness, measured as the clearance rate of violent crimes. Variables included the clearance (arrest) rates and the number of crimes recorded for several given violent crimes types. Here, too, the analysis showed that “police effectiveness is unrelated to either the number of CCW permits and or existence of constitutional carry laws.”

These results confirm what many in the Second Amendment community know already – that despite all the spurious rationalizations advanced against lawful carrying, CCW permittees and others carrying responsibly are not the ones who threaten public safety or produce more crime.     

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“Political Grief,” Gun Control, and Guilt by Association

News  

Monday, February 3, 2025

“Political Grief,” Gun Control, and Guilt by Association

Across the country, voters disappointed with President Trump’s election are coping with their feelings in various ways.

Urge Congress to Protect Your Right to Carry – Contact Your Member of Congress Today!

News  

Wednesday, January 8, 2025

Urge Congress to Protect Your Right to Carry – Contact Your Member of Congress Today!

Dear NRA Member: U.S. Representative Richard Hudson (R-NC) has reintroduced the Constitutional Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act (H.R. 38). Representative Hudson, the longstanding champion of this legislation, along with more than 120 of his colleagues have ...

Colorado: Senate Postpones Vote on Semi-Auto Ban

Friday, January 31, 2025

Colorado: Senate Postpones Vote on Semi-Auto Ban

Today, January 31st, the State Senate postponed the floor vote for Senate Bill 25-003, the near all-encompassing semi-automatic ban. The vote has been rescheduled for next Friday, February 7th.

Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals Strikes Down Federal Laws Prohibiting FFLs From Selling Handguns to 18-to-20-Year-Olds

Friday, January 31, 2025

Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals Strikes Down Federal Laws Prohibiting FFLs From Selling Handguns to 18-to-20-Year-Olds

Yesterday, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals held that 18 U.S.C. §§ 922(b)(1) and (c)(1)—which together forbid Federal Firearms Licensees from selling handguns to 18-to-20-year-olds—violate the Second Amendment.

Maine: Democrats Deal Major Blow to Anti-Gun Referendum

Wednesday, January 29, 2025

Maine: Democrats Deal Major Blow to Anti-Gun Referendum

Less than a week after holding a press conference praising themselves for running a paid signature effort that gathered a qualifying number of signatures to put an extreme Red Flag referendum on the 2025 ballot, ...

Expanded Gun Rights in the U.S. Virgin Islands?

News  

Monday, February 3, 2025

Expanded Gun Rights in the U.S. Virgin Islands?

The reelection of Donald Trump as President of the United States hasn’t just signaled a return to sanity in the White House when it comes to the Second Amendment.  His outspoken support for our right to ...

Washington: Financial Discrimination and Insurance Mandate Introduced

Monday, January 27, 2025

Washington: Financial Discrimination and Insurance Mandate Introduced

Washington anti-gun legislators continue their attack on law-abiding gun owners by introducing legislation to move the goal posts on lawful gun ownership. Last Friday, House Bill 1504 was introduced, requiring gun owners prove they are "financially ...

New York: Smart Gun Legislation Receives Approval in First Assembly Committee - Take Action Now!

Tuesday, January 28, 2025

New York: Smart Gun Legislation Receives Approval in First Assembly Committee - Take Action Now!

Out-of-control crime is currently one of the top issues for New Yorkers. While citizens of the Empire State suffer, Albany politicians continue to play games with far-fetched gun control schemes. On Tuesday, rather than pursue real ...

Utah: Extreme Gun Ban Bill Being Heard in Committee Today!

Friday, January 31, 2025

Utah: Extreme Gun Ban Bill Being Heard in Committee Today!

Today at 2:00pm the Senate Natural Resources Committee will hear Senate Bill 130, a 52-page anti-gun omnibus bill that will severely restrict Second Amendment rights in Utah. 

Colorado: Semi-Auto Ban Passes Senate Committee

Wednesday, January 29, 2025

Colorado: Semi-Auto Ban Passes Senate Committee

Just before midnight on Tuesday, January 28th, the Senate State, Veterans, & Military Affairs Committee passed Senate Bill 25-003, the all-encompassing ban on semi-automatic firearms, by a margin of 3-2.

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Established in 1975, the Institute for Legislative Action (ILA) is the "lobbying" arm of the National Rifle Association of America. ILA is responsible for preserving the right of all law-abiding individuals in the legislative, political, and legal arenas, to purchase, possess and use firearms for legitimate purposes as guaranteed by the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.