Explore The NRA Universe Of Websites

APPEARS IN News

Tracing Spurious Claims

Monday, December 20, 2021

Tracing Spurious Claims

Since leading anti-gun researchers acknowledged no connection between the 2020 surge in firearms sales and violence, unscrupulous anti-gun advocates must cite underwhelming statistics as meaningful evidence.  

That’s what The Trace did, in an article written in collaboration with FiveThirtyEight. We’d expect a more sophisticated analysis from FiveThirtyEight, but this is what Nate Silver’s outfit gave the world:

New Data Suggests a Connection Between Pandemic Gun Sales and Increased Violence.”

Ominous, right? The operative word here is “suggests.” They can’t use anything stronger because this is a very rudimentary analysis – there is no identification of causality. There is no actual statistical test to even indicate an association between the two variables.

Bloomberg’s activist-journalists looked at ATF reports showing the number of firearms traced broken out by the time between retail sale and tracing. They report that the number of firearms traced within a year of retail sale increased significantly from 2019 to 2020. The so-called journalists try to humanize the data by pointing to a pair of examples, developing the strongest emotional levers they could muster. Those cases are, of course, awful but are unlikely to be representative of all such traces.

So, the number of firearms traced within a year increased in a year in which the number of all guns sold increased. That seems proportional. The Trace covers this point, too: the ratio of guns traced within seven months of retail sale to all gun sales has increased annually since 2013. That sounds much more dramatic than the proportion increased from about 0.11% to 0.3% from 2013 through 2020.

That is eleven-one-hundredths of a percent to three-tenths of a percent. Naturally, that means that 99.7% of firearms are not traced within seven months of their acquisition.

The Trace turned to Julia Schleimer, a researcher at UC Davis, for comment. Readers may remember Ms. Schleimer as the lead author on published research that found no association between so-called “excess gun sales” in 2020 and violence.  Schleimer, who holds a Master of Public Health degree from Columbia University, told The Trace that, “Overall, I think we can say that the gun sale surge may have contributed to a surge in crime.” She did go on to say that other factors related to tracing may be solely responsible, but can you imagine a researcher more ready to accept something that contradicts their own work?

We can’t.

Schleimer may be on to something with her follow-up thought. Increases in tracing could be attributed to any number of factors. Perhaps more law enforcement officers and staff had time at HQ to process traces in 2020. Maybe there was a new or renewed emphasis on tracing firearms.

The ATF claims that the National Tracing Center is only authorized to trace a firearm for a law enforcement agency involved in a bona fide criminal investigation. This sounds very official, but gun owners across the country have heard stories of police running a trace on a firearm during a traffic stop. The ATF provides trace counts by category, which one may consider the reason for the trace.

The most common reasons for tracing a firearm in 2020 were possession of weapon (89,905) and firearm under investigation (74,264). Each of those dwarfs the number associated with aggravated assault (16,142), firing weapon (4,158), homicide (10,299), robbery (4,841), and simple assault (6,312).

The Trace and others refer to traced firearms as “crime guns” but the firearms traced are not all found at gritty, inner city crime scenes. Some (5,683) are traced during a traffic offense. Another 8,400 traces were related to “health – safety,” whatever that means, and nearly ten thousand were related to suicides or suicide attempts.

The full breakdown by category is available as a download on this page.

Crime is a real problem. Want to take the kids to visit San Francisco or New York City? Didn’t think so. Bank of America executives told staffers to avoid making themselves a target in New York City by the way they dress. We remember a time when the way someone dressed wasn’t an invitation to commit a crime.

There are larger questions to be explored about law enforcement strategy and policing, community relations, and economic stressors. The Trace acknowledges near the end of the article that “In several of the past 10 years, gun sales spiked without proportional increases in short time-to-crime recoveries; likewise, gun sales frequently dipped while recoveries were on the rise.” In other words, increases in sales are not a predictor of the number of recently acquired firearms police will recover and trace.

Seems like The Trace knows the ATF data does not suggest what they claimed it suggests. Maybe they just wish it would.

TRENDING NOW
Biden’s Executive Order Targeting Gun Ownership

News  

Wednesday, March 15, 2023

Biden’s Executive Order Targeting Gun Ownership

On Tuesday, Joe Biden issued an executive order on gun control that could accurately be described as a mile wide and an inch deep.

Columnist thinks gun owners can be shamed out of their rights

News  

Monday, March 20, 2023

Columnist thinks gun owners can be shamed out of their rights

At least one of the joyless scolds that predominate in gun control circles thinks they’ve stumbled onto a novel anti-gun tactic. According to Colorado Newsline Editor Quentin Young, gun control supporters should try to shame gun ...

Updates to ATF Final Rule on Stabilizing Braces

News  

Monday, January 30, 2023

Updates to ATF Final Rule on Stabilizing Braces

On Monday, January 30, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives’ (ATF) published the final Factoring Criteria for Firearms with Attached “Stabilizing Braces” rule for public inspection in the federal register.

U.S. Taxpayers Funding “Red Flag” Gun Confiscation Orders

News  

Monday, March 20, 2023

U.S. Taxpayers Funding “Red Flag” Gun Confiscation Orders

Texans are paying for so-called “Red Flag” gun confiscation orders in New York. North Carolinians are bankrolling Extreme Risk Protective Orders (ERPOs) in New Jersey. Louisianans are footing the bill for gun confiscation orders in Maryland.

Florida: Senate’s Constitutional Carry Passes Committee

Thursday, March 9, 2023

Florida: Senate’s Constitutional Carry Passes Committee

Today, the Senate Fiscal Policy Committee voted 11-6 to approve Senate Bill 150, constitutional carry, with an amendment aligning the language with the House’s version. It will now go to the full Senate for further consideration.

Washington: Senate Committee Hearing California-Style Gun Ban & Waiting Period Bills

Friday, March 17, 2023

Washington: Senate Committee Hearing California-Style Gun Ban & Waiting Period Bills

On March 23rd, at 8:00AM, the Senate Committee on Law & Justice will hear House Bill 1240, a comprehensive gun ban bill, and House Bill 1143, to impose a waiting period and training mandate for acquiring ...

The New Mexico Legislature Finishes Its 2023 Regular Session

Sunday, March 19, 2023

The New Mexico Legislature Finishes Its 2023 Regular Session

The New Mexico Legislature wrapped up at noon on Saturday, March 18.  Below is a list of gun control bills which passed and extreme anti-gun legislation which NRA-ILA worked to defeat with pro-Second Amendment lawmakers, members of the firearms ...

Michigan: Senate Passes Gun Control Schemes

Thursday, March 16, 2023

Michigan: Senate Passes Gun Control Schemes

Today, the Senate passed anti-gun bill packages to criminalize private transfers, require firearms be made unavailable for self-defense, and allow Second Amendment rights to be suspended without due process. They will now move to the House for further ...

Washington: Updates on Anti-Gun Bills

Tuesday, February 28, 2023

Washington: Updates on Anti-Gun Bills

Three major anti-gun bills still remain active in the Legislature, while others are likely defeated for the session. The NRA provided testimony and strong, united opposition to these bills throughout the legislative process thus far.

Florida: House Judiciary Passes Constitutional Carry

Tuesday, February 21, 2023

Florida: House Judiciary Passes Constitutional Carry

Today, the House Judiciary Committee voted 17-6 to advance House Bill 543, the constitutional carry bill. It will now go to the House floor for debate.

MORE TRENDING +
LESS TRENDING -

More Like This From Around The NRA

NRA ILA

Established in 1975, the Institute for Legislative Action (ILA) is the "lobbying" arm of the National Rifle Association of America. ILA is responsible for preserving the right of all law-abiding individuals in the legislative, political, and legal arenas, to purchase, possess and use firearms for legitimate purposes as guaranteed by the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.