Explore The NRA Universe Of Websites

APPEARS IN News

Flag on the Play: Media Promotes Gun Confiscation Laws by Exaggerating “Study” Results

Monday, August 26, 2019

Flag on the Play: Media Promotes Gun Confiscation Laws by Exaggerating “Study” Results

“Researchers from the University of California, Davis, have found that, in the three years since California implemented the nation’s first law allowing guns to be taken from individuals who pose an extreme risk, the so-called red flag orders have prevented at least 21 mass shootings. 

That’s how the Sacramento Bee summarized a research paper published in the Annals of Internal Medicine earlier this week. The paper, titled “Extreme Risk Protection Orders Intended to Prevent Mass Shootings: A Case Series,” was produced by a team of researchers at the UC Davis School of Medicine in Sacramento led by Dr. Garen Wintemute.

Wintemute is one of the most well-known anti-gun researchers in the country. As a man with a professional reputation to protect, his own explanation of the study’s findings is significantly less dramatic than the Bee’s summary.

“It is impossible to know whether violence would have occurred had ERPOs not been issued, and the authors make no claim of a causal relationship,” Wintemute admitted.

In conducting the study, Wintemute’s team requested court records for all 414 ERPO cases in California from 2016 through 2018. Yet the published paper included a case study analysis only of the 21 incidents in which the subject of the order had threatened to commit a mass shooting and had or would soon have access to firearms.

These incidents are nothing to make light of, and that is not the intention of this critique.

The point is instead to draw attention to the fact that emotional arguments are being advanced as “scientific” evidence of public policy.

The 21 incidents included two suspected terrorist plots, and nearly all of the cases involved specific threats, which are already crimes in California and can be charged as either a misdemeanor or a felony. A felony conviction or even indictment would itself result in a federal prohibition on the acquisition or possession of firearms.

Some of the case subjects included in the study claimed they were “just joking” or were clearly in mental duress (examples include subjects having previously attempted suicide or making a threat against those perceived to be responsible for the death of the subject’s child).

The bottom line, though, is most, if not all, of these cases – based on the brief information provided in the Annals paper – concerned behavior that seemingly could have led to serious criminal charges in California, even absent the state’s “red flag” law.

In 11 cases, the subject was in fact arrested. In another five cases, arrest data is missing from the court records.

That, of course, raises questions about the other five study subjects issued an ERPO. Did they receive help, treatment, or punishment after the order was issued?

It’s also worth noting that the methodology used to determine that none of the subjects had gone on to commit post-ERPO violence was a Google search for the subjects’ names, locations, and date of order issuance. 

While it’s likely that any act of mass violence would have generated some media coverage, a Google search is not the same thing as an actual arrest or criminal records inquiry.

Perhaps Wintemute and his team are working on further analysis of all 414 cases. If so, we hope that their work will include a more detailed examination of what happens to the subjects of these orders. Are the appropriate subjects charged with crimes? Do those who need help receive it? Or does the intervention end with the seizure of firearms?

Wintemute told the Sacramento Bee that his team had submitted the paper for publication last spring and that the timing of its public release was not related to the criminal mass attacks in Gilroy, El Paso, or Dayton. Still, it’s hard to ignore the coincidental timing and easy to wonder why Wintemute and his team did not wait until they had analyzed all 414 cases before publishing.

In the meantime, this paper represents a notable trend in emerging “gun violence” research. There is no real scientific analysis nor an estimate of the law’s impact. There is merely a list of cases presented as anecdotal evidence that “this urgent, individualized intervention can play a role in efforts to prevent mass shootings.”

In other words, it bears more of the hallmarks of political advocacy than actual science, especially in the way it is presented by a mass media eager to promote any anti-gun narrative.

We know that there are monsters out there that wish to do harm and who would emulate the deranged individuals that have attacked innocent people. No one doubts that.

We just hope that efforts to prevent tragedies protect the rights of all involved, deliver the help people clearly need, and do not come to rely on scare tactics or mere anecdotes that may not actually represent broader trends.

IN THIS ARTICLE
California Gun Confiscation
TRENDING NOW
NRA Statement on President Trump’s Executive Order Protecting Second Amendment Rights

News  

Second Amendment  

Friday, February 7, 2025

NRA Statement on President Trump’s Executive Order Protecting Second Amendment Rights

Today, the White House announced a new Executive Order to protect and expand the Second Amendment rights of all law-abiding Americans. This is the first action taken by President Donald J. Trump to carry through ...

Going, Going… Gone? Privacy and Gun Owner Data Security in California

News  

Monday, February 10, 2025

Going, Going… Gone? Privacy and Gun Owner Data Security in California

Where does privacy go to die? For gun owners and concealed carry applicants and permit holders in the Golden State, the answer must surely be California.

The Hearing Protection Act Introduced in the 119th Congress

News  

Wednesday, February 5, 2025

The Hearing Protection Act Introduced in the 119th Congress

U.S. Representative Ben Cline (R-VA-06) and U.S. Senator Mike Crapo (R-ID) recently reintroduced the Hearing Protection Act (H.R. 404/S. 364) in the 119th Congress. This commonsense legislation will give gun owners and hunters the opportunity to ...

Colorado: Senate to Attempt Semi-Auto Ban Vote Again Tomorrow

Wednesday, February 12, 2025

Colorado: Senate to Attempt Semi-Auto Ban Vote Again Tomorrow

It seems the anti-gun radicals of the General Assembly are hoping that "third time's the charm" for the vote on their semi-automatic ban.

CMP Resumes 1911 Pistol Sales, Offers Streamline Process and Incentives

News  

Monday, February 3, 2025

CMP Resumes 1911 Pistol Sales, Offers Streamline Process and Incentives

One day before Donald Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States, he held a Make America Great Again rally in Washington, D.C., where he spoke to more than 20,000 energized supporters ...

NFA Prosecution Shows ATF Still Determined to Imprison Americans for Braced Pistols

News  

Monday, February 10, 2025

NFA Prosecution Shows ATF Still Determined to Imprison Americans for Braced Pistols

Documents filed in an ongoing prosecution for illegal possession of a short-barreled rifle are raising new concerns about ATF’s enforcement policy concerning pistols with attached stabilizing braces. 

Colorado: Senate Delays Vote on Semi-Auto Ban A Second Time

Friday, February 7, 2025

Colorado: Senate Delays Vote on Semi-Auto Ban A Second Time

For the second week in a row, the State Senate has postponed the floor vote for Senate Bill 25-003, the near all-encompassing semi-automatic ban

NRA Files Lawsuit Challenging Massachusetts’s Ban on the Possession and Carry of Handguns and Semiautomatic Firearms by Adults Under 21

News  

Second Amendment  

Friday, February 14, 2025

NRA Files Lawsuit Challenging Massachusetts’s Ban on the Possession and Carry of Handguns and Semiautomatic Firearms by Adults Under 21

Today, the National Rifle Association, along with the Gun Owners’ Action League, Commonwealth Second Amendment, Firearms Policy Coalition, Second Amendment Foundation, Gun Owners of America, and an individual, Mack Escher, filed a lawsuit challenging Massachusetts’s ...

Virginia: Gun Control Bills Pass General Assembly, Head to Youngkin's Desk

Friday, February 14, 2025

Virginia: Gun Control Bills Pass General Assembly, Head to Youngkin's Desk

It has been a busy week in Richmond, and not for the right reasons. The House has passed a slew of anti-gun legislation, and these bills will now be transmitted to Governor Youngkin's office

Legislation Introduced to Block Credit Card Gun Registry

News  

Wednesday, February 12, 2025

Legislation Introduced to Block Credit Card Gun Registry

U.S. Representatives Riley Moore (R-WV-02), Richard Hudson (R-NC-09), and Andy Barr (R-KY-06) have introduced H.R. 1181, the Protecting Privacy in Purchases Act. This crucial legislation would prohibit credit card companies from tracking constitutionally protected purchases ...

MORE TRENDING +
LESS TRENDING -

More Like This From Around The NRA

NRA ILA

Established in 1975, the Institute for Legislative Action (ILA) is the "lobbying" arm of the National Rifle Association of America. ILA is responsible for preserving the right of all law-abiding individuals in the legislative, political, and legal arenas, to purchase, possess and use firearms for legitimate purposes as guaranteed by the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.