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Surprise: Study Finds No Rise in Violent Crime Attributable to Adopting Right-to-Carry Laws

Thursday, December 6, 2018

Surprise: Study Finds No Rise in Violent Crime Attributable to Adopting Right-to-Carry Laws

As we’ve noted recently, much research purporting to demonstrate connections between access to guns or right-to-carry laws and increases in crime is seriously flawed.  Often it's an attempt to curtail or eliminate Americans’ rights under the Second Amendment rather than unbiased scientific research.

One recent study bucked that trend, however, finding no evidence of a link between access to firearms and increases in crime. “State Level Firearm Concealed-Carry Legislation and Rates of Homicide and Other Violent Crime,” (Hamill, Hernandez, Bailey, Zielinski, Matos, & Schiller, 2018), examined an expansive dataset, encompassing all 50 states and the District of Columbia – from 1986 to 2015 – to determine whether a relationship existed between liberalization of access to legal concealed carry of firearms and rates of both violent and nonviolent crime.

The 30 years’ worth of crime data comprised state-level crime rates for homicides, violent crime, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, and burglary from the Department of Justice Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) system. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) provided partially redundant figures, including state-based rates of homicide overall and firearm-specific homicide. State-specific rates of unemployment were provided by the U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics, and poverty rates were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Hamill et al. (2018) defined the ease with which state residents could obtain a carry permit in two ways:

  • On a four-point scale: (1) no carry; (2) may-issue; (3) shall-issue; or, (4) unrestricted (i.e., constitutional carry)
  • With a simpler, bipolar system which grouped the no-carry and may-issue schemes, versus the shall-issue and unrestricted arrangements

Using a form of linear regression modeling which allowed for multiple predictor and control variables as well as correlations among error terms (due to the time-based nature of the data), the authors estimated the various UCR and CDC crime statistics as a function of ease of obtaining carry permits, after controlling for state and year. No significant relationships were noted between ease of carry – whether measured on the four-point or bipolar scales – and rates of crime in any of the UCR or CDC categories. Repeating the analyses, but additionally controlling for level of poverty and unemployment, the Hamill team again found no statistical relationships between the ease with which carry permits could be obtained – regardless of measurement scheme – and crime rates in any category.

The authors concluded:

After adjusting for several population and demographic factors, we demonstrated that the rates of homicide and violent crime were not significantly increased after state laws were passed making access to concealed-carry permits less restricted. These important findings should inform further public policy research to help determine root causes and solutions to firearm-related homicide and violent crime in the future. (Hamill et al., 2018, p. 5)

As the authors noted, the study was correlational in nature and did not demonstrate causation (or lack thereof). Additionally, there were variables with potential explanatory power that were not included in the models, because the authors plan to do so “as a topic of future research” (Hamill et al., 2018, p. 7). Yet, however unlikely it may be that research such as this will convince many in the anti-gun crowd – whose minds seem closed to objective data which conflict with the “bad gun” narrative – it is refreshing to see objective minds investigate the association between guns and crime with the intent of letting the data write the story, rather than seeking evidence to buttress already-worn arguments.

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Seattle’s Gun Tax: A Textbook Case on the Law of Inverse Consequences

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Monday, March 27, 2023

Seattle’s Gun Tax: A Textbook Case on the Law of Inverse Consequences

The law of inverse or unintended consequences refers to outcomes that are the reverse of the planned or expected results. As described in another context, “the law of unintended consequences could create a perverse effect contrary to ...

Florida: House Passes Constitutional Carry

Friday, March 24, 2023

Florida: House Passes Constitutional Carry

Today, the House voted 76-32 to pass House Bill 543, the constitutional carry bill.

This is Why We Can’t Have Nice Things… In San Francisco

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Monday, March 27, 2023

This is Why We Can’t Have Nice Things… In San Francisco

Most Americans understand that our country has had a problem with a surge in crime over the last couple of years. In response, there has been a surge in gun purchases, and millions of law-abiding citizens ...

Updates to ATF Final Rule on Stabilizing Braces

News  

Monday, January 30, 2023

Updates to ATF Final Rule on Stabilizing Braces

On Monday, January 30, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives’ (ATF) published the final Factoring Criteria for Firearms with Attached “Stabilizing Braces” rule for public inspection in the federal register.

Biden’s Executive Order Targeting Gun Ownership

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Wednesday, March 15, 2023

Biden’s Executive Order Targeting Gun Ownership

On Tuesday, Joe Biden issued an executive order on gun control that could accurately be described as a mile wide and an inch deep.

Bloomberg and His Anti-Gun Apparatus Continue to Mislead Voters

News  

Monday, March 27, 2023

Bloomberg and His Anti-Gun Apparatus Continue to Mislead Voters

It’s no deep secret that anti-gun billionaire Mike Bloomberg will do anything, and at any cost, to promote his agenda of eradicating the Second Amendment. He launched an anti-gun organization, Mayors Against Illegal Guns, then ...

Colorado: Assault Weapon Ban Committee Hearing Scheduled!

Monday, March 27, 2023

Colorado: Assault Weapon Ban Committee Hearing Scheduled!

On March 29, the House Judiciary Committee is scheduled to vote on House Bill 23-1230 (“HB 23-1230”), which bans the manufacturing, importing, purchasing, selling, offering to sell, or transferring ownership of what the drafters have defined as ...

Florida: Senate’s Constitutional Carry Passes Committee

Thursday, March 9, 2023

Florida: Senate’s Constitutional Carry Passes Committee

Today, the Senate Fiscal Policy Committee voted 11-6 to approve Senate Bill 150, constitutional carry, with an amendment aligning the language with the House’s version. It will now go to the full Senate for further consideration.

Florida: 2023 Session Convened, Senate Committee Hearing Constitutional Carry

Wednesday, March 8, 2023

Florida: 2023 Session Convened, Senate Committee Hearing Constitutional Carry

Yesterday, March 7th, the Florida Legislature began the 2023 legislative session. Tomorrow, at 9:00AM, the Senate Fiscal Policy Committee will hear Senate Bill 150, the Senate’s constitutional carry bill.

North Carolina: Right-to-Carry Expansion and Permit-to-Purchase Repeal VETOED by Gov. Cooper

Friday, March 24, 2023

North Carolina: Right-to-Carry Expansion and Permit-to-Purchase Repeal VETOED by Gov. Cooper

Unfortunately, Governor Roy Cooper vetoed Senate Bill 41, a bill that recognizes law-abiding citizens’ right to self-defense while attending a church with a school attached and also repeals the redundant permit-to-purchase system.  This was expected from the anti-gun Governor ...

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Established in 1975, the Institute for Legislative Action (ILA) is the "lobbying" arm of the National Rifle Association of America. ILA is responsible for preserving the right of all law-abiding individuals in the legislative, political, and legal arenas, to purchase, possess and use firearms for legitimate purposes as guaranteed by the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.