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Surprise: Study Finds No Rise in Violent Crime Attributable to Adopting Right-to-Carry Laws

Thursday, December 6, 2018

Surprise: Study Finds No Rise in Violent Crime Attributable to Adopting Right-to-Carry Laws

As we’ve noted recently, much research purporting to demonstrate connections between access to guns or right-to-carry laws and increases in crime is seriously flawed.  Often it's an attempt to curtail or eliminate Americans’ rights under the Second Amendment rather than unbiased scientific research.

One recent study bucked that trend, however, finding no evidence of a link between access to firearms and increases in crime. “State Level Firearm Concealed-Carry Legislation and Rates of Homicide and Other Violent Crime,” (Hamill, Hernandez, Bailey, Zielinski, Matos, & Schiller, 2018), examined an expansive dataset, encompassing all 50 states and the District of Columbia – from 1986 to 2015 – to determine whether a relationship existed between liberalization of access to legal concealed carry of firearms and rates of both violent and nonviolent crime.

The 30 years’ worth of crime data comprised state-level crime rates for homicides, violent crime, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, and burglary from the Department of Justice Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) system. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) provided partially redundant figures, including state-based rates of homicide overall and firearm-specific homicide. State-specific rates of unemployment were provided by the U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics, and poverty rates were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Hamill et al. (2018) defined the ease with which state residents could obtain a carry permit in two ways:

  • On a four-point scale: (1) no carry; (2) may-issue; (3) shall-issue; or, (4) unrestricted (i.e., constitutional carry)
  • With a simpler, bipolar system which grouped the no-carry and may-issue schemes, versus the shall-issue and unrestricted arrangements

Using a form of linear regression modeling which allowed for multiple predictor and control variables as well as correlations among error terms (due to the time-based nature of the data), the authors estimated the various UCR and CDC crime statistics as a function of ease of obtaining carry permits, after controlling for state and year. No significant relationships were noted between ease of carry – whether measured on the four-point or bipolar scales – and rates of crime in any of the UCR or CDC categories. Repeating the analyses, but additionally controlling for level of poverty and unemployment, the Hamill team again found no statistical relationships between the ease with which carry permits could be obtained – regardless of measurement scheme – and crime rates in any category.

The authors concluded:

After adjusting for several population and demographic factors, we demonstrated that the rates of homicide and violent crime were not significantly increased after state laws were passed making access to concealed-carry permits less restricted. These important findings should inform further public policy research to help determine root causes and solutions to firearm-related homicide and violent crime in the future. (Hamill et al., 2018, p. 5)

As the authors noted, the study was correlational in nature and did not demonstrate causation (or lack thereof). Additionally, there were variables with potential explanatory power that were not included in the models, because the authors plan to do so “as a topic of future research” (Hamill et al., 2018, p. 7). Yet, however unlikely it may be that research such as this will convince many in the anti-gun crowd – whose minds seem closed to objective data which conflict with the “bad gun” narrative – it is refreshing to see objective minds investigate the association between guns and crime with the intent of letting the data write the story, rather than seeking evidence to buttress already-worn arguments.

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Colorado: General Assembly Continues to Follow California's Lead; Semi-Auto Ban Scheduled For Hearing

Thursday, March 7, 2024

Colorado: General Assembly Continues to Follow California's Lead; Semi-Auto Ban Scheduled For Hearing

The Colorado General Assembly continues to follow California's lead when it comes to gun control, this year already pushing for an 11% Excise tax on firearms/ammunition and now pursuing a ban on commonly owned semi-automatic ...

Wisconsin: Legislation Updating the Definition of Muzzloader Signed by Governor Evers

Friday, March 15, 2024

Wisconsin: Legislation Updating the Definition of Muzzloader Signed by Governor Evers

Yesterday, the governor signed Wisconsin Act 116, formally Senate Bill 587, into law. This legislation establishes a new definition for “muzzleloaders” that would allow for the use of innovative technological advancements that could benefit sportsmen, ...

Maine: NRA Fires Back Against Gun Grabbers

Friday, March 15, 2024

Maine: NRA Fires Back Against Gun Grabbers

For months, anti-gun politicians and gun-grabbing groups have been running wild in Augusta, spreading misinformation about firearms in a desperate attempt to pass the most extreme gun-control in the country. The proposals carry the same theme, ...

Delaware: Senate Passes Maryland-Style Permit to Purchase Scheme

Friday, March 15, 2024

Delaware: Senate Passes Maryland-Style Permit to Purchase Scheme

Last night, the Delaware Senate passed Senate Substitute 1 for Senate Bill 2 (SB 2) by a vote of 15 to 6. This extreme legislation will impose a Maryland-style “handgun qualified purchase card” and a handgun transfer ...

Virginia: More than a Dozen Anti-Gun Bills Sent to the Governor!

Wednesday, March 6, 2024

Virginia: More than a Dozen Anti-Gun Bills Sent to the Governor!

The newly elected Virginia General Assembly has prioritized restricting law-abiding citizens' Second Amendment rights and has made good on that priority this session. This year, dozens of anti-gun bills have been considered in both chambers ...

Colorado: Semi-Auto Ban Introduced in General Assembly

Wednesday, February 14, 2024

Colorado: Semi-Auto Ban Introduced in General Assembly

Anti-Gun extremist State Reps. Tim Hernandez (D-04) and Elisabeth Epps (D-06) introduced House Bill 24-1292, a bill banning the manufacturing, importing, purchasing, selling, offering to sell, or transferring ownership of so called “assault weapons”. 

Washington Post’s Somewhat Pro-Gun Column Inadvertently Exposes Problem with Mandatory Storage Laws

News  

Monday, March 11, 2024

Washington Post’s Somewhat Pro-Gun Column Inadvertently Exposes Problem with Mandatory Storage Laws

We generally don’t expect to see the Washington Post say anything positive about firearms or law-abiding gun owners, although there are occasional Op-Eds from pro-Second Amendment lawmakers, unbiased researchers and Constitutional scholars, and the like.

Appropriations Bill Passes with Language Protecting Veterans’ Second Amendment Rights

News  

Monday, March 11, 2024

Appropriations Bill Passes with Language Protecting Veterans’ Second Amendment Rights

Last week, Congress approved a package of legislation to fund various government agencies that corrects a longstanding and shameful practice that had been depriving American veterans of their Second Amendment rights since 1998.

Colorado: Mandatory Storage Bill Passes Committee and Hearings Postponed Due to Weather

Thursday, March 14, 2024

Colorado: Mandatory Storage Bill Passes Committee and Hearings Postponed Due to Weather

Today, HB 24-1348 which mandates how firearms must be stored in unattended vehicles, passed out of the House Judiciary Committee and is now eligible for a final vote on the House Floor. Please contact your lawmakers by using the ...

Utah: Governor Cox Signs Legislation Protecting Financial Privacy of Gun Owners!

Thursday, March 14, 2024

Utah: Governor Cox Signs Legislation Protecting Financial Privacy of Gun Owners!

Today, Governor Spencer Cox signed HB 406, legislation that provides important financial privacy protections for gun owners when purchasing firearms, firearm parts, and ammunition. The NRA would like to thank Governor Cox for signing this ...

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Established in 1975, the Institute for Legislative Action (ILA) is the "lobbying" arm of the National Rifle Association of America. ILA is responsible for preserving the right of all law-abiding individuals in the legislative, political, and legal arenas, to purchase, possess and use firearms for legitimate purposes as guaranteed by the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.