Explore The NRA Universe Of Websites

APPEARS IN News

Surprise: Problems with Widely Touted Anti-Gun Research

Friday, September 7, 2018

Surprise: Problems with Widely Touted Anti-Gun Research

“I am not interested in giving any serious thought to John Lott or his claims.”

Those are the words of University of Alabama associate professor Adam Lankford in response to Fox News after economist John Lott called Lankford’s highly publicized study into question.

Lankford’s study was published in 2016 but was touted by President Obama and a fawning media anxious for any “evidence” that gun ownership is somehow evil even before it was officially published. Lankford’s anti-gun perspective is evident early on in his paper. His eighth paragraph starts, “Less positive may be the fact that, according to a comparative study of 178 countries, the United States ranks first in gun ownership…”

Despite all of the attention it received, Lankford’s study is troublesome. He claims to have found that 31% of global mass shooters attacked in the United States between 1966 and 2012. He states that the U.S. suffered 90 offenders during this period while only four other countries had more than nine offenders. Obama took this alleged finding and ran with it, claiming “The one thing we do know is that we have a pattern now of mass shooting in this country that has no parallel anywhere else in the world.”

The problem is that Lankford’s study is lazy and sloppy, if not deliberately limited. He used the New York Police Department’s 2012 Active Shooter report supplemented with the FBI’s 2014 Active Shooter Report and “data gathered on incidents from other countries.” Lankford used the same methodology as the NYPD to gather additional information.

The NYPD only used open-source material – i.e., Google. They didn’t use subscription-based research services like LexisNexis, government databases, or any of the resources available to professors at well-funded world class universities. The “NYPD limited its internet searches to English-language sites, creating a strong sampling bias against international incidents.” That methodology works for the NYPD’s purpose of developing recommendations for risk mitigation but it doesn’t work for a cross-national study because most of the world speaks a language other than English. The FBI 2014 Active Shooter report was limited to incidents in the United States.

President Obama and others eager for anything that casts gun ownership as fundamentally dangerous took Lankford’s 31% claim at face value. Other researchers, academics, and journalists who questioned Lankford’s work – or even asked to see his data – were rebuffed by the UA professor.

John Lott thought that 31% seemed high, so he asked if Lankford would share his dataset – a common courtesy among academics and researchers. Lankford refused. Repeatedly. Lankford also refused to explain how he measured (or counted) mass shootings. Lankford refused to tell journalists how he collected his data, despite his claim that he found complete data for 171 countries – somehow without using foreign language sources. Journalists at Real Clear Politics asked Lankford questions about his methodology and for access to his raw data; he refused. Lankford’s paper does not include a list of the number of shooters in each country, only providing the totals for five countries including the United States.

So Lott built his own dataset using the University of Maryland Global Terrorism Database, Nexis, and web searches for mass shootings. Lott hired people who spoke foreign languages to help with this effort. Unlike Lankford, Lott provides the search terms he used as well as a list of the cases in his dataset. Lott has been as transparent as possible with his study and even acknowledges that his monumental effort likely undercounts shootings in foreign countries due to current and historical news coverage of such events in the developing world. Lott looked at the years 1998-2012, likely to ensure the availability of better data. 

Lott found at least fifteen times more mass public shooters than Lankford in less than a third the number of years (1998-2012). Lankford claimed to find 292 mass public shooters over 47 years while Lott found more than 10,000 such shooters around the world in the last 15 years. Professor Carl Moody at the College of William & Mary confirmed Lott’s counts for The Washington Times and added, “By the way, anybody can do this. The GTD database is free and available to all.”

Lott’s most important finding is that 1.43% of mass public shooters attacked in the United States. That is starkly different than Lankford’s 31% claim. Lott extended his work to the number of attacks and found that 2.88% of mass public shootings between 1998 and 2012 were in the United States.

Since Lott’s paper was published, his findings have been covered in The Washington Timesand in a comprehensive article on RealClearPolitics.com that touches on the importance of allowing other researchers or journalists to verify one’s data (including infamous cases within the context of firearms-related research).

Lankford’s conclusion – that reducing gun ownership would reduce mass shootings – falls apart when one considers the undercounted foreign cases. One would hope – even expect – that a professor would give serious thought to valid questions about his work and to more comprehensive studies that refute his findings. Petty, dismissive, and evasive answers do not reflect poorly on the genuine questions raised or those asking them.

 

IN THIS ARTICLE
Alabama Obama Anti-Gun Practices
TRENDING NOW
Colorado: General Assembly Continues to Follow California's Lead; Semi-Auto Ban Scheduled For Hearing

Thursday, March 7, 2024

Colorado: General Assembly Continues to Follow California's Lead; Semi-Auto Ban Scheduled For Hearing

The Colorado General Assembly continues to follow California's lead when it comes to gun control, this year already pushing for an 11% Excise tax on firearms/ammunition and now pursuing a ban on commonly owned semi-automatic ...

Wisconsin: Legislation Updating the Definition of Muzzloader Signed by Governor Evers

Friday, March 15, 2024

Wisconsin: Legislation Updating the Definition of Muzzloader Signed by Governor Evers

Yesterday, the governor signed Wisconsin Act 116, formally Senate Bill 587, into law. This legislation establishes a new definition for “muzzleloaders” that would allow for the use of innovative technological advancements that could benefit sportsmen, ...

Maine: NRA Fires Back Against Gun Grabbers

Friday, March 15, 2024

Maine: NRA Fires Back Against Gun Grabbers

For months, anti-gun politicians and gun-grabbing groups have been running wild in Augusta, spreading misinformation about firearms in a desperate attempt to pass the most extreme gun-control in the country. The proposals carry the same theme, ...

Delaware: Senate Passes Maryland-Style Permit to Purchase Scheme

Friday, March 15, 2024

Delaware: Senate Passes Maryland-Style Permit to Purchase Scheme

Last night, the Delaware Senate passed Senate Substitute 1 for Senate Bill 2 (SB 2) by a vote of 15 to 6. This extreme legislation will impose a Maryland-style “handgun qualified purchase card” and a handgun transfer ...

Virginia: More than a Dozen Anti-Gun Bills Sent to the Governor!

Wednesday, March 6, 2024

Virginia: More than a Dozen Anti-Gun Bills Sent to the Governor!

The newly elected Virginia General Assembly has prioritized restricting law-abiding citizens' Second Amendment rights and has made good on that priority this session. This year, dozens of anti-gun bills have been considered in both chambers ...

Colorado: Mandatory Storage Bill Passes Committee and Hearings Postponed Due to Weather

Thursday, March 14, 2024

Colorado: Mandatory Storage Bill Passes Committee and Hearings Postponed Due to Weather

Today, HB 24-1348 which mandates how firearms must be stored in unattended vehicles, passed out of the House Judiciary Committee and is now eligible for a final vote on the House Floor. Please contact your lawmakers by using the ...

Colorado: Semi-Auto Ban Introduced in General Assembly

Wednesday, February 14, 2024

Colorado: Semi-Auto Ban Introduced in General Assembly

Anti-Gun extremist State Reps. Tim Hernandez (D-04) and Elisabeth Epps (D-06) introduced House Bill 24-1292, a bill banning the manufacturing, importing, purchasing, selling, offering to sell, or transferring ownership of so called “assault weapons”. 

Appropriations Bill Passes with Language Protecting Veterans’ Second Amendment Rights

News  

Monday, March 11, 2024

Appropriations Bill Passes with Language Protecting Veterans’ Second Amendment Rights

Last week, Congress approved a package of legislation to fund various government agencies that corrects a longstanding and shameful practice that had been depriving American veterans of their Second Amendment rights since 1998.

Idaho: Legislative Update- Big Wins in the Gem State

Thursday, March 14, 2024

Idaho: Legislative Update- Big Wins in the Gem State

There have been big wins in the Gem State this week for the Second Amendment! Anti school carry bill is stopped in its tracks in committee and multiple pro-guns bills are on the move in ...

Washington Post’s Somewhat Pro-Gun Column Inadvertently Exposes Problem with Mandatory Storage Laws

News  

Monday, March 11, 2024

Washington Post’s Somewhat Pro-Gun Column Inadvertently Exposes Problem with Mandatory Storage Laws

We generally don’t expect to see the Washington Post say anything positive about firearms or law-abiding gun owners, although there are occasional Op-Eds from pro-Second Amendment lawmakers, unbiased researchers and Constitutional scholars, and the like.

MORE TRENDING +
LESS TRENDING -

More Like This From Around The NRA

NRA ILA

Established in 1975, the Institute for Legislative Action (ILA) is the "lobbying" arm of the National Rifle Association of America. ILA is responsible for preserving the right of all law-abiding individuals in the legislative, political, and legal arenas, to purchase, possess and use firearms for legitimate purposes as guaranteed by the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.