Explore The NRA Universe Of Websites

APPEARS IN News

Surprise: Problems with Widely Touted Anti-Gun Research

Friday, September 7, 2018

Surprise: Problems with Widely Touted Anti-Gun Research

“I am not interested in giving any serious thought to John Lott or his claims.”

Those are the words of University of Alabama associate professor Adam Lankford in response to Fox News after economist John Lott called Lankford’s highly publicized study into question.

Lankford’s study was published in 2016 but was touted by President Obama and a fawning media anxious for any “evidence” that gun ownership is somehow evil even before it was officially published. Lankford’s anti-gun perspective is evident early on in his paper. His eighth paragraph starts, “Less positive may be the fact that, according to a comparative study of 178 countries, the United States ranks first in gun ownership…”

Despite all of the attention it received, Lankford’s study is troublesome. He claims to have found that 31% of global mass shooters attacked in the United States between 1966 and 2012. He states that the U.S. suffered 90 offenders during this period while only four other countries had more than nine offenders. Obama took this alleged finding and ran with it, claiming “The one thing we do know is that we have a pattern now of mass shooting in this country that has no parallel anywhere else in the world.”

The problem is that Lankford’s study is lazy and sloppy, if not deliberately limited. He used the New York Police Department’s 2012 Active Shooter report supplemented with the FBI’s 2014 Active Shooter Report and “data gathered on incidents from other countries.” Lankford used the same methodology as the NYPD to gather additional information.

The NYPD only used open-source material – i.e., Google. They didn’t use subscription-based research services like LexisNexis, government databases, or any of the resources available to professors at well-funded world class universities. The “NYPD limited its internet searches to English-language sites, creating a strong sampling bias against international incidents.” That methodology works for the NYPD’s purpose of developing recommendations for risk mitigation but it doesn’t work for a cross-national study because most of the world speaks a language other than English. The FBI 2014 Active Shooter report was limited to incidents in the United States.

President Obama and others eager for anything that casts gun ownership as fundamentally dangerous took Lankford’s 31% claim at face value. Other researchers, academics, and journalists who questioned Lankford’s work – or even asked to see his data – were rebuffed by the UA professor.

John Lott thought that 31% seemed high, so he asked if Lankford would share his dataset – a common courtesy among academics and researchers. Lankford refused. Repeatedly. Lankford also refused to explain how he measured (or counted) mass shootings. Lankford refused to tell journalists how he collected his data, despite his claim that he found complete data for 171 countries – somehow without using foreign language sources. Journalists at Real Clear Politics asked Lankford questions about his methodology and for access to his raw data; he refused. Lankford’s paper does not include a list of the number of shooters in each country, only providing the totals for five countries including the United States.

So Lott built his own dataset using the University of Maryland Global Terrorism Database, Nexis, and web searches for mass shootings. Lott hired people who spoke foreign languages to help with this effort. Unlike Lankford, Lott provides the search terms he used as well as a list of the cases in his dataset. Lott has been as transparent as possible with his study and even acknowledges that his monumental effort likely undercounts shootings in foreign countries due to current and historical news coverage of such events in the developing world. Lott looked at the years 1998-2012, likely to ensure the availability of better data. 

Lott found at least fifteen times more mass public shooters than Lankford in less than a third the number of years (1998-2012). Lankford claimed to find 292 mass public shooters over 47 years while Lott found more than 10,000 such shooters around the world in the last 15 years. Professor Carl Moody at the College of William & Mary confirmed Lott’s counts for The Washington Times and added, “By the way, anybody can do this. The GTD database is free and available to all.”

Lott’s most important finding is that 1.43% of mass public shooters attacked in the United States. That is starkly different than Lankford’s 31% claim. Lott extended his work to the number of attacks and found that 2.88% of mass public shootings between 1998 and 2012 were in the United States.

Since Lott’s paper was published, his findings have been covered in The Washington Timesand in a comprehensive article on RealClearPolitics.com that touches on the importance of allowing other researchers or journalists to verify one’s data (including infamous cases within the context of firearms-related research).

Lankford’s conclusion – that reducing gun ownership would reduce mass shootings – falls apart when one considers the undercounted foreign cases. One would hope – even expect – that a professor would give serious thought to valid questions about his work and to more comprehensive studies that refute his findings. Petty, dismissive, and evasive answers do not reflect poorly on the genuine questions raised or those asking them.

 

IN THIS ARTICLE
Alabama Obama Anti-Gun Practices
TRENDING NOW
Is This What Help Looks Like in Chicago?

News  

Monday, June 5, 2023

Is This What Help Looks Like in Chicago?

Chicago, desperate to do something to try to diminish the violent crime that is ravaging the city, has turned to programs that are not your traditional law enforcement approach to try to help stem the ...

Study: Restrictive Gun Control Laws “Unlikely” to Solve Problem of Youth Gun Violence

News  

Monday, June 5, 2023

Study: Restrictive Gun Control Laws “Unlikely” to Solve Problem of Youth Gun Violence

A first of its kind study published in late May in the American Medical Association’s JAMA Network Open concluded that community-level “social vulnerability” factors like poverty, unemployment, crowded housing, and minority status were much more likely than ...

Maine: House to Vote on Anti-Shooting Range Bill

Wednesday, May 31, 2023

Maine: House to Vote on Anti-Shooting Range Bill

Tomorrow, the Maine House is scheduled to vote on Legislative Document 1000, which would establish a firearm range safety group within the Department of Inland Fisheries & Wildlife. This legislation is the first step in ...

Updates to ATF Final Rule on Stabilizing Braces

News  

Monday, January 30, 2023

Updates to ATF Final Rule on Stabilizing Braces

On Monday, January 30, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives’ (ATF) published the final Factoring Criteria for Firearms with Attached “Stabilizing Braces” rule for public inspection in the federal register.

Connecticut:  Gun Control Bill Passes the House and Moves to the Senate

Saturday, May 27, 2023

Connecticut: Gun Control Bill Passes the House and Moves to the Senate

On Thursday, the House passed HB 6667 on a vote of 96-51.  This drastic gun control legislation has a bit of everything.  It contains a ban on open carry and strengthens prohibitions and registration of semi-auto "assault ...

New York:  Approaching End of Session Is A Dangerous Time For Gun Owners

Wednesday, May 31, 2023

New York: Approaching End of Session Is A Dangerous Time For Gun Owners

We are in the ninth inning in Albany, and the anti-gun politicians are always looking to steal a base.  You can count the number of scheduled 2023 legislative session days on one hand, which means ...

U.S. House Judiciary Committee Advances Pistol Brace Resolution

News  

Monday, April 24, 2023

U.S. House Judiciary Committee Advances Pistol Brace Resolution

On April 19, the U.S. House of Representatives Judiciary Committee voted 23-15 to advance H.J.Res.44, which would reign in the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives’ attempt to regulate pistol stabilizing braces. The resolution employs ...

Texas Legislature Ends Regular Session After Passing a Trio of Pro-Second Amendment Bills & Rejecting Gun Control Measures

Wednesday, May 31, 2023

Texas Legislature Ends Regular Session After Passing a Trio of Pro-Second Amendment Bills & Rejecting Gun Control Measures

The Texas Legislature adjourned from the 2023 Regular Session on Memorial Day and was immediately called back into special session on property tax relief and human smuggling issues.

Undercover Video: Sen. Fetterman (D-Pa.) staffer claims boss would be “okay with like overturning the Second Amendment”

News  

Tuesday, May 30, 2023

Undercover Video: Sen. Fetterman (D-Pa.) staffer claims boss would be “okay with like overturning the Second Amendment”

It seems as though Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) may like to overturn more than just the U.S. Senate’s standards of professional attire. According to an undercover video of Fetterman senate staffer Luke Borwegen, obtained by O’Keefe Media Group, ...

Grassroots Spotlight: NRA Freedom Fest at Dorchester Gun Shop

Take Action  

Monday, June 5, 2023

Grassroots Spotlight: NRA Freedom Fest at Dorchester Gun Shop

NRA-ILA Grassroots successfully hosted its first NRA FreedomFest at Dorchester Gun Shop in Grand Blanc, MI, in May. We were joined by our community partners, Michigan Open Carry and Ducks Unlimited, and enjoyed a great day in celebration ...

MORE TRENDING +
LESS TRENDING -

More Like This From Around The NRA

NRA ILA

Established in 1975, the Institute for Legislative Action (ILA) is the "lobbying" arm of the National Rifle Association of America. ILA is responsible for preserving the right of all law-abiding individuals in the legislative, political, and legal arenas, to purchase, possess and use firearms for legitimate purposes as guaranteed by the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.