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New Evidence against Gun Confiscation

Thursday, November 9, 2017

New Evidence against Gun Confiscation

We recently discussed the selection of input variables for statistical modeling and how such choices can alter one’s findings. New research published in the Journal of Experimental Criminology examines how the choice in methodology can alter one’s findings. 

This new research focuses on a favorite topic of anti-gun politicians, high-ranking politicos, and liberal media: Australia’s 1996 firearms confiscation laws. The anti-gun crowd loves to talk about how the confiscation reduced firearms mortality rates, based at least in part on research conducted in 2006 that concluded the laws led to a decline in firearms deaths, particularly suicides.

Now, Ivy League researchers have found that that the impact of the confiscation has been overstated because the 2006 effort used a statistical methodology that did not account for potential trends and seasonality unrelated to any specific event (in this case, the 1996 confiscation law). The authors present their findings with sterile text, taking no special joy in turning a long-running anti-gun narrative on its head.

Researchers ran an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to account for possible trends in the time series. The ARIMA model found less statistical evidence of the impact of the firearm law; there was marginal evidence that suicide rates declined (and so reduced total firearm mortality rates, without controlling for correlated socio-economic factors) but firearms homicide rates were not affected. They found no evidence of a change in trend after the intervention (the 1996 laws). In other words, the downward trend existed before Australia forced law-abiding citizens to turn in their legally acquired personal property.

Next, they conducted a series of robustness checks. The authors looked at years prior to the 1996 gun confiscation and inserted a series of artificial laws to determine if the previous research found causality or existing trend. Statistically significant findings would indicate the existence of a pre-existing downward trend in firearm mortality rates (and would run contrary to claims of causality).  

Nineteen out of 36 artificial interruption models were statistically significant, “suggesting that the empirical model can be implemented in multiple non-intervention years with results similar to the true 1996 interruption year.” The ARIMA model using artificial laws passed the robustness checks, but with statistically insignificant results for all types of firearms mortality. 

These findings demonstrate that the 2006 model was mis-specified. We don’t have much faith that politicians and gun control advocates will acknowledge the shortcomings of the previous research or of the Australian gun confiscation itself. After all, they still call it a “buy-back.”

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Washington: NRA Files Legal Challenge Against Misleading Ballot Title for Gun Control Initiative

Thursday, May 17, 2018

Washington: NRA Files Legal Challenge Against Misleading Ballot Title for Gun Control Initiative

Yesterday, NRA filed a legal challenge in the Thurston County Superior Court objecting to the misleading and inadequate ballot title for Initiative 1639, which seeks to further restrict the Second Amendment rights of Washington's law-abiding citizens.  The Thurston ...

Massachusetts: Anti-Second Amendment Bills Rolled into Committee Substitute

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

Massachusetts: Anti-Second Amendment Bills Rolled into Committee Substitute

On May 23rd, the Massachusetts state House of Representatives will be voting on House Bill 4517, which would allow firearms to be seized from individuals following baseless accusations without proper due process.

Illinois: House Passes Bill for Firearm Surrender Without Due Process

Thursday, May 24, 2018

Illinois: House Passes Bill for Firearm Surrender Without Due Process

On May 23rd, the Illinois state House of Representatives voted 80-32 to pass House Amendment 2 to House Bill 2354 to allow Second Amendment rights to be revoked without due process.  HA 2 to HB 2354 now ...

Illinois: Gun Control Bills to be Heard This Week

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

Illinois: Gun Control Bills to be Heard This Week

The Illinois state House of Representatives can take action any day on House Amendment 1 to Senate Bill 2580 to expand the 72 hour waiting period to all firearms.  On May 24th, the Illinois state ...

Hard Times for Dick's as Second Amendment Supporters Respond to Company’s Anti-Gun Bent

Hunting  

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Friday, May 11, 2018

Hard Times for Dick's as Second Amendment Supporters Respond to Company’s Anti-Gun Bent

We have recently been reporting on the bizarre anti-gun activism of one of the nation’s larger firearm retailers, Dick’s Sporting Goods and its affiliated Field & Stream stores. First, the company announced it would stop selling most centerfire semi-automatic ...

New Jersey Action Needed: Senate Committee Passes Multiple Gun Control Bills

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

New Jersey Action Needed: Senate Committee Passes Multiple Gun Control Bills

Yesterday, the Senate Budget and Appropriations Committee considered and passed multiple anti-gun measures. 

Guide To The Interstate Transportation Of Firearms

Gun Laws  

Thursday, January 1, 2015

Guide To The Interstate Transportation Of Firearms

CAUTION: Federal and state firearms laws are subject to frequent change. This summary is not to be considered as legal advice or a restatement of law.

Sorry, Alyssa, But We're Glad We Came

News  

Friday, May 11, 2018

Sorry, Alyssa, But We're Glad We Came

You likely recall we mentioned a new anti-gun organization recently formed, which was billed as the brainchild of actress Alyssa Milano.  You may also recall that we reported her group, NoRA, had made the vaguely threatening proclamation, ...

News  

Friday, April 27, 2018

NRA Statement on Yeti

The National Rifle Association released the following statement from in response to Yeti’s inaccurate statements:

Anti-Gun Democrat Proposes Banning Semi-Autos and Going After "Resisters"

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Friday, May 11, 2018

Anti-Gun Democrat Proposes Banning Semi-Autos and Going After "Resisters"

The headline of the USA Today op-ed said it all. Anti-gun Congressman Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) last week advocated for legislation to ban an as-yet undetermined class of semi-automatic firearms and to “go after resisters” who refuse to relinquish their ...

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NRA ILA

Established in 1975, the Institute for Legislative Action (ILA) is the "lobbying" arm of the National Rifle Association of America. ILA is responsible for preserving the right of all law-abiding individuals in the legislative, political, and legal arenas, to purchase, possess and use firearms for legitimate purposes as guaranteed by the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.