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New Evidence against Gun Confiscation

Thursday, November 9, 2017

New Evidence against Gun Confiscation

We recently discussed the selection of input variables for statistical modeling and how such choices can alter one’s findings. New research published in the Journal of Experimental Criminology examines how the choice in methodology can alter one’s findings. 

This new research focuses on a favorite topic of anti-gun politicians, high-ranking politicos, and liberal media: Australia’s 1996 firearms confiscation laws. The anti-gun crowd loves to talk about how the confiscation reduced firearms mortality rates, based at least in part on research conducted in 2006 that concluded the laws led to a decline in firearms deaths, particularly suicides.

Now, Ivy League researchers have found that that the impact of the confiscation has been overstated because the 2006 effort used a statistical methodology that did not account for potential trends and seasonality unrelated to any specific event (in this case, the 1996 confiscation law). The authors present their findings with sterile text, taking no special joy in turning a long-running anti-gun narrative on its head.

Researchers ran an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to account for possible trends in the time series. The ARIMA model found less statistical evidence of the impact of the firearm law; there was marginal evidence that suicide rates declined (and so reduced total firearm mortality rates, without controlling for correlated socio-economic factors) but firearms homicide rates were not affected. They found no evidence of a change in trend after the intervention (the 1996 laws). In other words, the downward trend existed before Australia forced law-abiding citizens to turn in their legally acquired personal property.

Next, they conducted a series of robustness checks. The authors looked at years prior to the 1996 gun confiscation and inserted a series of artificial laws to determine if the previous research found causality or existing trend. Statistically significant findings would indicate the existence of a pre-existing downward trend in firearm mortality rates (and would run contrary to claims of causality).  

Nineteen out of 36 artificial interruption models were statistically significant, “suggesting that the empirical model can be implemented in multiple non-intervention years with results similar to the true 1996 interruption year.” The ARIMA model using artificial laws passed the robustness checks, but with statistically insignificant results for all types of firearms mortality. 

These findings demonstrate that the 2006 model was mis-specified. We don’t have much faith that politicians and gun control advocates will acknowledge the shortcomings of the previous research or of the Australian gun confiscation itself. After all, they still call it a “buy-back.”

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Guide To The Interstate Transportation Of Firearms

Gun Laws  

Thursday, January 1, 2015

Guide To The Interstate Transportation Of Firearms

CAUTION: Federal and state firearms laws are subject to frequent change. This summary is not to be considered as legal advice or a restatement of law.

Students “School” Antigun Education Officials on Civil Rights, Receive Large Settlements in Court Cases

News  

Monday, July 19, 2021

Students “School” Antigun Education Officials on Civil Rights, Receive Large Settlements in Court Cases

Last September we reported on the saga of Ka'Mauri Harrison, a Louisiana elementary school student who was suspended for having a BB gun that happened to come into view while the fourth grader was participating in online ...

Canada’s Gun Confiscation Scheme: Still More Questions than Answers

News  

Monday, July 19, 2021

Canada’s Gun Confiscation Scheme: Still More Questions than Answers

On June 29, Yves Giroux, Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Officer, released a report on the estimated cost of implementing the firearm confiscation (“buyback”) program that is part of the sweeping Order-in-Council announced by Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau ...

Joe Biden Wants to Ban 9mm Pistols

News  

Monday, November 25, 2019

Joe Biden Wants to Ban 9mm Pistols

A week after he told voters that the Second Amendment doesn’t protect “a magazine with a hundred clips in it,” 2020 Democratic Presidential Candidate Joe Biden offered supporters more of his singular brand of anti-gun ...

Guide To The Interstate Transportation Of Firearms

Gun Laws  

Monday, June 30, 2014

Guide To The Interstate Transportation Of Firearms

CAUTION: Federal and state firearms laws are subject to frequent change. This summary is not to be considered as legal advice or a restatement of law.

Keith Olbermann Revealed as Functional Illiterate

News  

Monday, July 19, 2021

Keith Olbermann Revealed as Functional Illiterate

Tired crank Keith Olbermann reached a new low in weak-minded rhetoric in recent months with his doltish insight into the Second Amendment. According to the former MSNBC bloviator, the Second Amendment does not protect an individual right ...

Forty-Three Amicus Briefs Filed In Support OF NRA-ILA Backed Second Amendment Case Before Supreme Court

Wednesday, July 21, 2021

Forty-Three Amicus Briefs Filed In Support OF NRA-ILA Backed Second Amendment Case Before Supreme Court

Earlier this year, the Supreme Court decided to hear the NRA-ILA backed case challenging New York’s restrictive concealed-carry-licensing regime. And just last week, NRA-ILA filed the opening brief in this crucial case, which is located here.

Louisiana: Betrayal at the Capitol

Wednesday, July 21, 2021

Louisiana: Betrayal at the Capitol

Yesterday, SB 118, Constitutional Carry, was defeated due to several Senators reversing their initial vote of support on the bill.  Two of the Senators who flip-flopped were Senators Patrick Connick (SD-8) and Louie Bernard (SD-31). 

ATF Targets Pistol Stabilizing Braces in New Rulemaking

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Wednesday, June 9, 2021

ATF Targets Pistol Stabilizing Braces in New Rulemaking

On June 7th, ATF published a new notice of proposed rulemaking on its website...

Research Update: It’s [Still] Not the Guns

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Monday, July 19, 2021

Research Update: It’s [Still] Not the Guns

Much has changed since last summer. In July 2020, notoriously anti-gun researchers circulated a paper that alleged an association between what they deemed “excess” gun purchases early in the pandemic and violence. This year, the same ...

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Established in 1975, the Institute for Legislative Action (ILA) is the "lobbying" arm of the National Rifle Association of America. ILA is responsible for preserving the right of all law-abiding individuals in the legislative, political, and legal arenas, to purchase, possess and use firearms for legitimate purposes as guaranteed by the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.