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Increase in Violent Crime: National Trend Driven by Local Politics?

Friday, January 13, 2017

Increase in Violent Crime: National Trend Driven by Local Politics?

The FBI released its Preliminary Semiannual Uniform Crime Report earlier this week and the bad news is that violent crime increased for the second consecutive year.

Looking at the January to June period, violent crime decreased from 2012-2013 and then again from 2013-2014. From 2014-2015, we experienced an increase of 1.7%. From 2015-2016? An increase of 5.3%. This includes increases in all categories of violent crime – murder and non-negligent manslaughter, rape, aggravated assault, and robbery – compared to the first six months of 2015. 

We can’t determine the roots of the increase without additional data. What the existing data does reveal is that the increase in violent crime has not been experienced uniformly throughout the country.

Metropolitan counties experienced a larger increase in violent crime than non-metropolitan counties (6.3% to 1.6%, respectively). Cities with a million or more residents had the largest increase in violent crime from the same period last year (+9.7%). Cities with half a million to a just under a million residents experienced an increase of 5.2% in violent crime and smaller cities experienced a 4.3% increase. Large cities with a million or more residents were also the site of an increasing number of property crimes (+2.1%) while smaller cities saw marginal increases or even decreasing amounts of property crime. 

Some cities had a more severe increase in violent crime than others. Chicago suffered through 13,729 violent crimes (including 317 murders) in the first six months of 2016. That’s 503 per 100,000 residents – an increase of 97 violent crimes since the same time the prior year. 

Baltimore, a city with roughly one quarter as many residents as Chicago, had 5,176 violent crimes during early 2016. That is a rate of 833 per 100,000 residents and an increase of 153 points from the early 2015 rate. 

Not all major cities – or even all cities with historically high violent crime rates – had spikes as dramatic as Chicago and Baltimore. Detroit’s violent crime rate decreased from 861 per 100,000 residents in 2015 to 803 in early 2016. Houston went from 449 violent crimes per 100,000 residents in early 2015 to 509 per 100,000 in early 2016, and Dallas went from 333 to 367. Metropolitan Las Vegas went from 435 violent crimes per 100,000 residents to 465. 

While these are just a handful of cities from across the country, their citizens saw significantly different increases in violent crime rates during the first six months of 2016. This initial data indicates that while overall crime levels may simply be leveling off after several years of decline, local policies and events are an important factor in how bad things got in specific cities in early 2016.

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Washington: Hearing for Bill to Expand Gun Seizures Without Due Process

Monday, February 18, 2019

Washington: Hearing for Bill to Expand Gun Seizures Without Due Process

On February 19th, the Washington state Senate Committee on Law & Justice will be holding an executive session on Senate Bill 5745 to expand the circumstances under which Second Amendment rights may be revoked without ...

H.R. 8 Markup: Liberal Democrats Markup Gun Control Legislation

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Friday, February 15, 2019

H.R. 8 Markup: Liberal Democrats Markup Gun Control Legislation

The Nancy Pelosi Speaker Era 2.0 continued on Wednesday, Feb. 13, with a markup of H.R 8, the “universal” background checks bill, in the House Judiciary Committee. Following on the heels of last week’s Judiciary Committee hearing, the same committee held a markup on ...

Another Study Blames Guns, Excludes Reality

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Friday, February 15, 2019

Another Study Blames Guns, Excludes Reality

A study published in Preventative Medicine by Yu Lu and Jeff R. Temple concludes that “the majority of mental health symptoms examined were not related to gun violence. Instead, access to firearms was the primary culprit.”

Turning a Right into a Privilege: HR 1112 Gives Feds Unfettered Power to Block Gun Sales

News  

Friday, February 15, 2019

Turning a Right into a Privilege: HR 1112 Gives Feds Unfettered Power to Block Gun Sales

H.R. 8, which would criminalize the private transfer of firearms, has received significant attention from the gun rights community. However, H.R. 1112, which purportedly targets the inappropriately-named “Charleston loophole,” is just as insidious an attack ...

Texas: Setting the Record Straight On "Red Flag" Legislation

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Texas: Setting the Record Straight On "Red Flag" Legislation

Over the holiday weekend, a conservative "taxpayer watchdog" group sent out an email to its contact list which gave the impression that NRA-ILA supports "red flag" legislation in Texas.  One wonders what the organization hoped to accomplish by confusing and attempting to divide ...

Polls: No Lasting Support for Gun Control One Year After Parkland

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Friday, February 15, 2019

Polls: No Lasting Support for Gun Control One Year After Parkland

Thursday marked the one year anniversary of the terrible crimes at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, FL. It was a somber occasion, but some media outlets couldn’t contain their glee this week that ...

Maryland: 2019 Legislative Session Begins with a Slew of Anti-Gun Bills Introduced

Thursday, February 7, 2019

Maryland: 2019 Legislative Session Begins with a Slew of Anti-Gun Bills Introduced

With the 2019 Maryland Legislative Session underway, gun control groups have made the General Assembly a target for their anti-gun agenda. 

California: City of Los Angeles Discriminates Against NRA Supporters

Friday, February 15, 2019

California: City of Los Angeles Discriminates Against NRA Supporters

This week, the City Council Members of Los Angeles showed their extreme distain of the Second Amendment, the NRA and our supporters.  On February 12, the City Council held the first reading of a proposed ordinance that ...

Colorado: House Committee to Consider “Red Flag” Legislation This Week

Sunday, February 17, 2019

Colorado: House Committee to Consider “Red Flag” Legislation This Week

On Thursday, ​at 1:30pm in the Old State Library, the House Judiciary Committee is scheduled to consider anti-gun legislation, House Bill 1177.

Ohio: Legislative Fix Introduced to Correct Drafting Error

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Ohio: Legislative Fix Introduced to Correct Drafting Error

The Senate Government Oversight and Reform Committee could soon consider Senate Bill 53. 

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Established in 1975, the Institute for Legislative Action (ILA) is the "lobbying" arm of the National Rifle Association of America. ILA is responsible for preserving the right of all law-abiding individuals in the legislative, political, and legal arenas, to purchase, possess and use firearms for legitimate purposes as guaranteed by the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.