Explore The NRA Universe Of Websites

APPEARS IN News

Adventures in Correlation

Friday, August 10, 2018

Adventures in Correlation

Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut recently linked to a news article about a CDC report on homicides, claiming that “allowing more guns in more places isn’t making us safer. It’s doing the opposite.”

That’s a curious conclusion to draw from a simple trend line. The CDC report includes no statistical analysis of the data; they make no attempt to analyze the number of homicides beyond the raw numbers. They do not attempt to identify or attribute causation. Senator Murphy, on the other hand, has provided his own imaginative interpretation. He doesn’t appear to be using any actual data but rather using broad strokes and his own perception – guided by his anti-gun beliefs – to baselessly attribute causation.

The CDC report only went back as far as 2010. Extending the window back to the early 1980s shows a different picture.

Now consider that the number of states with shall-issue concealed carry permit rules – what we believe Senator Murphy means when he tweeted, “more guns allowed in more places” -  has only increased since the early 1980s. The peak year of firearms-related homicides in this time period was 1993; that year, 14 states issued no concealed carry licenses, 19 were may-issue states, 18 were shall-issue, and Vermont was, as always, unrestricted. The year with the fewest homicides by firearm since 1981 was 2000; there were 30 shall issue states by that point (down to 7 no-issue states and 12 may-issue states). Today, every state issues concealed carry licenses and 42 states are either shall-issue or permitless carry states.  That doesn’t seem like much of a connection. The correlation coefficient between the number of shall issue or permitless carry states and the total number of annual firearms-related homicides is both negative and weak (-0.44) but it doesn’t identify causation.

If he is intent on using dubious claims to advance public policy goals, Senator Murphy may want to look at banning ice cream consumption to reduce shark attacks. Ice cream consumption per month and shark attacks per month are strongly correlated. You may think that may have something to do with ice cream and swimming both provide respite on hot summer days, but…it’s correlated! As is per capita cheese consumption and fatal bedsheet entanglements. Maybe Senator Murphy is interested in reducing U.S. highway fatalities. If so, he should work to increase Mexican lemon imports

While we suspect that Senator Murphy will continue on his current course, we do hope that he and his allies in the gun control caucus will stop trying to blame law-abiding gun owners for the actions of criminals.

TRENDING NOW
Colorado: General Assembly Continues to Follow California's Lead; Semi-Auto Ban Scheduled For Hearing

Thursday, March 7, 2024

Colorado: General Assembly Continues to Follow California's Lead; Semi-Auto Ban Scheduled For Hearing

The Colorado General Assembly continues to follow California's lead when it comes to gun control, this year already pushing for an 11% Excise tax on firearms/ammunition and now pursuing a ban on commonly owned semi-automatic ...

Wisconsin: Legislation Updating the Definition of Muzzloader Signed by Governor Evers

Friday, March 15, 2024

Wisconsin: Legislation Updating the Definition of Muzzloader Signed by Governor Evers

Yesterday, the governor signed Wisconsin Act 116, formally Senate Bill 587, into law. This legislation establishes a new definition for “muzzleloaders” that would allow for the use of innovative technological advancements that could benefit sportsmen, ...

Maine: NRA Fires Back Against Gun Grabbers

Friday, March 15, 2024

Maine: NRA Fires Back Against Gun Grabbers

For months, anti-gun politicians and gun-grabbing groups have been running wild in Augusta, spreading misinformation about firearms in a desperate attempt to pass the most extreme gun-control in the country. The proposals carry the same theme, ...

Delaware: Senate Passes Maryland-Style Permit to Purchase Scheme

Friday, March 15, 2024

Delaware: Senate Passes Maryland-Style Permit to Purchase Scheme

Last night, the Delaware Senate passed Senate Substitute 1 for Senate Bill 2 (SB 2) by a vote of 15 to 6. This extreme legislation will impose a Maryland-style “handgun qualified purchase card” and a handgun transfer ...

Virginia: More than a Dozen Anti-Gun Bills Sent to the Governor!

Wednesday, March 6, 2024

Virginia: More than a Dozen Anti-Gun Bills Sent to the Governor!

The newly elected Virginia General Assembly has prioritized restricting law-abiding citizens' Second Amendment rights and has made good on that priority this session. This year, dozens of anti-gun bills have been considered in both chambers ...

Colorado: Semi-Auto Ban Introduced in General Assembly

Wednesday, February 14, 2024

Colorado: Semi-Auto Ban Introduced in General Assembly

Anti-Gun extremist State Reps. Tim Hernandez (D-04) and Elisabeth Epps (D-06) introduced House Bill 24-1292, a bill banning the manufacturing, importing, purchasing, selling, offering to sell, or transferring ownership of so called “assault weapons”. 

Washington Post’s Somewhat Pro-Gun Column Inadvertently Exposes Problem with Mandatory Storage Laws

News  

Monday, March 11, 2024

Washington Post’s Somewhat Pro-Gun Column Inadvertently Exposes Problem with Mandatory Storage Laws

We generally don’t expect to see the Washington Post say anything positive about firearms or law-abiding gun owners, although there are occasional Op-Eds from pro-Second Amendment lawmakers, unbiased researchers and Constitutional scholars, and the like.

Appropriations Bill Passes with Language Protecting Veterans’ Second Amendment Rights

News  

Monday, March 11, 2024

Appropriations Bill Passes with Language Protecting Veterans’ Second Amendment Rights

Last week, Congress approved a package of legislation to fund various government agencies that corrects a longstanding and shameful practice that had been depriving American veterans of their Second Amendment rights since 1998.

Colorado: Mandatory Storage Bill Passes Committee and Hearings Postponed Due to Weather

Thursday, March 14, 2024

Colorado: Mandatory Storage Bill Passes Committee and Hearings Postponed Due to Weather

Today, HB 24-1348 which mandates how firearms must be stored in unattended vehicles, passed out of the House Judiciary Committee and is now eligible for a final vote on the House Floor. Please contact your lawmakers by using the ...

Utah: Governor Cox Signs Legislation Protecting Financial Privacy of Gun Owners!

Thursday, March 14, 2024

Utah: Governor Cox Signs Legislation Protecting Financial Privacy of Gun Owners!

Today, Governor Spencer Cox signed HB 406, legislation that provides important financial privacy protections for gun owners when purchasing firearms, firearm parts, and ammunition. The NRA would like to thank Governor Cox for signing this ...

MORE TRENDING +
LESS TRENDING -

More Like This From Around The NRA

NRA ILA

Established in 1975, the Institute for Legislative Action (ILA) is the "lobbying" arm of the National Rifle Association of America. ILA is responsible for preserving the right of all law-abiding individuals in the legislative, political, and legal arenas, to purchase, possess and use firearms for legitimate purposes as guaranteed by the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.