Explore The NRA Universe Of Websites

APPEARS IN News

How Anti-Gun Research Works

Monday, July 26, 2021

How Anti-Gun Research Works

The objective world mistrusts most gun policy research because its clear the objective is to produce an anti-gun outcome rather than honest analysis. Politicians and professional activists claim the mantle of evidence but will ignore any findings that threaten their anti-gun agenda.

Anti-gun politicians continue to advocate for policies that the very researchers they champion have contradicted, if not found to be ineffective. Researchers and activists cherry-pick data, but they also cherry-pick which findings to use – even from a single study. Can you imagine if the same low threshold for credibility was applied to pro-gun findings?

Lets try an exercise. Vermont – one of the safest states in the nation, one that had Permitless Carry for centuries – enacted a magazine capacity restriction in 2018. Lets look at the violent crime rate in Vermont and the U.S using data from the FBIs Crime Data Explorer. The national violent crime rate decreased from 2018 to 2019 but the rate in Vermont increased – and even increased more than it had from 2017 to 2018.

Anti-gun researchers and activists have used a trend line like this as evidence of an effect. Surely, the violent crime rate increase and the magazine capacity restrictions must be related because they happened seemingly simultaneously.

Like many anti-gun researchers, we excluded any years that make our point look less dramatic if not outright unsupported. 

Lets try some rudimentary statistical analysis. The magazine capacity restriction and the violent crime rate have a correlation coefficient of 0.8 for the years 2009 through 2019. Does this strong correlation suggest any relationship between the magazine capacity restriction and the increase in violent crime?

Of course not; this, like nearly all social science research related to firearms policy, does not identify causation and excludes highly relevant social, cultural, and economic variables.

Narrow data selection or deliberate exclusions are not new phenomenon, but it is persistent. Anti-gun researchers also curate their datasets to ensure their findings support their pre-determined conclusion. If this happens to produce other unreasonable or even outrageous findings, no big deal. The gun control crowd has no problem overlooking inconvenient findings.

A recent example of picking-and-choosing research findings occurred in real estate. Investment firms, including BlackRock, went overtly anti-gun several years ago and wanted to use their financial power to force gun manufacturers and retailers to change their legal business strategies. Gun control organizations rated banks to shame them into cutting off the legal firearms industry, and even the Obama Administration got in on the act. Large investment firms were recently reported to be buying up residential real estate to realize long-term profits on the rental income.

Investment firms turned on legal firearms-related businesses because of the supposed associated harm, but now theyre encouraging a behavior that is nearly twice as risky – according to the grandfather of gun control research – as keeping a firearm in the home.

According to Arthur Kellermans 1993 study published in the New England Journal of Medicine, keeping a firearm in the home had an adjusted odds ratio of 2.7 compared to an adjusted odds ratio of 4.4 for renting (instead of owning) a home. The odds ratio represents an increase in the risk of homicide.

Renting presented the largest increase risk of homicide in the model while gun ownership was the smallest, but big gun control salivated at Kellermans misfocused conclusion. The findings related to renting vs. owning have been ignored, which may explain why supposedly socially conscious investment firms are encouraging consumers to engage in the riskiest behavior.

Kellermans study led to the Dickey Amendment because it was so obviously contrived to advance gun control. Based on the results, there is something very seriously wrong with Kellermans methodology. But, Kellermans paper has somehow held on and even continues to be cited in new papers. At least thirteen papers published so far this year cite Kellerman – and this should also tell you something about the state of gun policy research.

Anti-gun researchers Philip J. Cook and John J. Donohue published a letter in Science in 2017 that acknowledged the necessary data, time, and resources are readily available to academics who want to conduct research on gun policy. But all we hear about it the need for federally funded gun control research, even after an admission from the paper of record.

Make no mistake –professional gun control activists want to trade on the perceived credibility of the federal government. This is not sincere, sterile research. Consider the sort of ridiculously flawed anti-gun research that has been published and the shortcuts required to produce an anti-gun talking point. Think about the voluminous criticisms leveled at Gary Kleck and yet no one has reproduced his research with a different finding.

Anti-gun researches will continue to use flawed methodology and bad data as long as a fawning media and gun control establishment continue to fuel any research” with the right” conclusion

IN THIS ARTICLE
Research Bias
TRENDING NOW
Federal District Court Strikes Down IL’s “Assault Weapon” and “Large-Capacity Magazine” Bans in NRA-Supported Case

Saturday, November 9, 2024

Federal District Court Strikes Down IL’s “Assault Weapon” and “Large-Capacity Magazine” Bans in NRA-Supported Case

Today, the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Illinois struck down provisions of the Protect Illinois Communities Act (PICA) that prohibit “assault weapons” and “large-capacity magazines” in an NRA-supported case, Barnett v. Raoul.

Kamala for Gun Confiscation: In Her Own Words

News  

Monday, September 16, 2024

Kamala for Gun Confiscation: In Her Own Words

During the September 10 presidential debate, President Donald Trump correctly highlighted Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris’s support for gun confiscation. A visibly defensive Harris claimed, “We're not taking anybody's guns away. So stop with the ...

As-Applied Challenge to Illinois Ban on Licensees’ Carrying on Public Transit Succeeds; Court Rejects “Breathtaking, Jawdropping, and Eyepopping” Arguments

News  

Tuesday, September 10, 2024

As-Applied Challenge to Illinois Ban on Licensees’ Carrying on Public Transit Succeeds; Court Rejects “Breathtaking, Jawdropping, and Eyepopping” Arguments

Long before the United States Supreme Court ruling in New York State Rifle & Pistol Ass’n, Inc. v. Bruen (2022), a federal appellate court relied on the right to bear arms for self-defense to invalidate an Illinois law that ...

Michigan: House of Representatives to Take Important Vote on Anti-Gun Bills

Tuesday, November 12, 2024

Michigan: House of Representatives to Take Important Vote on Anti-Gun Bills

Tomorrow, the Michigan House of Representatives is expected to vote on two packages of anti-gun bills. Use the take action button below to contact your Representative and urge them to oppose these anti-gun bills!  

NRA Files Official Protest to Bears Ears Shooting Closure

News  

Monday, November 4, 2024

NRA Files Official Protest to Bears Ears Shooting Closure

On Friday, NRA-ILA and other sportsmen’s groups filed a formal protest against the Biden-Harris administration’s plan to close recreational shooting access to 1.3 million acres in the Bears Ears National Monument in Utah.

Michigan: Senate Committee to Vote on Expanding Gun-Free Zones

Tuesday, November 12, 2024

Michigan: Senate Committee to Vote on Expanding Gun-Free Zones

Tomorrow, the Senate Committee on Civil Rights, Judiciary, and Public Safety will take up SB 857 and SB 858. These bills would dramatically expand “gun-free zones” in the state and drastically limit where those with a concealed pistol ...

Kamala Harris’s 2020 Running Mate Calls Trump Supporters “Garbage”

News  

Monday, November 4, 2024

Kamala Harris’s 2020 Running Mate Calls Trump Supporters “Garbage”

America hasn’t heard much from Joe Biden recently. You remember … Joe Biden?

Kamala Harris’ Record on Gun Control and Second Amendment

News  

Thursday, October 3, 2024

Kamala Harris’ Record on Gun Control and Second Amendment

Vice President Kamala Harris has consistently campaigned for draconian gun control laws, which severely limit the rights of lawful gun owners.

California: Governor Newsom Signs Multiple Anti-Gun Bills into Law

Friday, September 27, 2024

California: Governor Newsom Signs Multiple Anti-Gun Bills into Law

On September 24th, Governor Newsom continued his crusade to erode Second Amendment rights in California by signing several anti-gun bills into law. NRA actively opposed these bills throughout the session and will continue to fight ...

NRA Scores Legal Victory Against ATF; “Pistol Brace Rule” Enjoined From Going Into Effect Against NRA Members

Monday, April 1, 2024

NRA Scores Legal Victory Against ATF; “Pistol Brace Rule” Enjoined From Going Into Effect Against NRA Members

NRA Members Among the Largest Class Protected from Draconian Rule

MORE TRENDING +
LESS TRENDING -

More Like This From Around The NRA

NRA ILA

Established in 1975, the Institute for Legislative Action (ILA) is the "lobbying" arm of the National Rifle Association of America. ILA is responsible for preserving the right of all law-abiding individuals in the legislative, political, and legal arenas, to purchase, possess and use firearms for legitimate purposes as guaranteed by the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.